Comments on: The Lib Dems’ death is being predicted once again

By: James Graham

James Graham — Tue, 27 May 2008 09:29:42 +0000

While I agree that t’other James’ prediction is far too optimistic, ThunderDragon could do well to remember that the Conservatives managed to gain 33 MPs in 2005 with an increase of just 0.6% of the share of the vote. It is a feature of FPTP that big gains can be won with small swings.

By: Ian Thorpe

Ian Thorpe — Mon, 26 May 2008 16:57:06 +0000

I became involved with the Liberals around 40 years ago (never got my head round the Lib Dems so now I’m a Green) and here in the North the squeeze effect when an unpopular Labour Government is in power has been particularly apparent. Hardcore Labour voters wanting to give the party ledership a kick don’t seem to undertand the concept of tactical voting.

A very old Liberal long ago once told me, “realistically we’ve no chance, round here they’d vote for a turd if you stck a Labour rosette on it.”

As things often turn out, when “they” want to protest they turn to a blue but only slightly less smelly object.

By: ThunderDragon

ThunderDragon — Mon, 26 May 2008 15:37:22 +0000

“James Says: I’ve got my money on the LibDems gaining 80-90 seats at the next general election without any huge advance in their popular vote (~20%).”

Then you’re going to lose your money.

They’re at 63 now. In reality [not some rainbow-coloured land where you live] how likely is it that they’re going to more than double in on election without increasing their popular vote by much? Not at all. If they’re very lucky, the Lib Dems might pick up quite a few seats from Labour, but they’re likely to lose a few to the Tories as well. I’d be extremely surprised if they came out with an increase in double figures.

By: James

James — Mon, 26 May 2008 13:23:50 +0000

The more they spin the more the public becomes familiar with the message and immune to its effects.

They can continue to try to pull the wool over our eyes, but it does them no good in the long run as they end up pulling the wool over their own eyes. We grow wise and get sceptical while they grow accustomed to their cynical sychophancy.

I’ve got my money on the LibDems gaining 80-90 seats at the next general election without any huge advance in their popular vote (~20%). This continues the ironing out of inequalities under FPTP and will make a case to see LibDems as credible challengers in the future, maybe PR isn’t the panacea is has been painted after all!

By: Ken

Ken — Mon, 26 May 2008 11:17:05 +0000

So, James, do you think that it is right for the Lib Dems to crow about collapses in Tory voting where the Lib Dems are second in a Labour seat? I agree that there are problems with the way that people try and predict the Lib Dem vote, as extrapolating from polls tends to underestimate their local campaigning, but there are good reasons as to why you might lose seats - an unwind of tactical voting from 1997, and the fact that people who want Labour out might vote for the Conservatives to try and ensure they are in government, rather than making sure Labour aren’t.

By: Darrell

Darrell — Fri, 23 May 2008 16:02:37 +0000

Well it is certainly not outlandish to say one of the other parties could collapse with the most obvious candidate for that being Labour when it is pushed back out into the wilderness of opposition. Although I am dubious about the long-term benefits of the long-stints followed by total collapse of governments to politics and the political process the one thing it does do is introduce alot of fluidity into the political process.

By: James Graham

James Graham — Fri, 23 May 2008 15:33:24 +0000

I’m afraid that is wishful thinking on your part. I’m not suggesting that, without a total collapse of one of the other two parties (which has happened before and may yet happen again), we could get more than 150 seats or that our share of the vote could rise much above 25%. But 25% is distinctly possible and 25% of the seats in the Commons would be 161. In lieu of a decent electoral system, we could still be under-represented in the Commons and have between 100-150 MPs (2×63=126). It is a question of targeting efficiently.

By: ThunderDragon

ThunderDragon — Fri, 23 May 2008 15:22:50 +0000

James, I think that that is just wishful thinking. It may be what you want to happen, but it’s not going to. Much Lib Dem support comes from protest votes. Hence, their vote is circular. They’ll pick up votes from disaffected Labour voters, but lose votes to a resurgent Conservative party. And then that ill switch around.

The Lib Dems simply cannot develop beyond this. Their main claim is “we’re not them”. And that will only change with a huge electoral upset and the dissolution of either of the other main parties. Which isn’t very likely.

By: James Graham

James Graham — Fri, 23 May 2008 14:50:40 +0000

ThunderDragon - I agree. But if we don’t fall back in the next election then we have a real opportunity to change that.

By: ThunderDragon

ThunderDragon — Fri, 23 May 2008 14:28:59 +0000

There is no way the ib Dems are going to die out. But I wouldn’t call what we have at the moment “three party politics”. More like two-and-a-bit. Two-and-a-half if I was being extremely generous.