Mike Smithson rightly dismisses today’s Mori poll as an accurate reflection of voter intention. Indeed, I have always dismissed Mori polls for the same reasons.
But there is one small note of optimisim. Because Mori only looks at those “certain to vote” it does suggest a slight hardening of the Lib Dem vote, which is notoriously soft (the main reason why Mori normally underestimates our voter share). That is good news because a hardening base provides us with a bridgehead from which to target more voters.
Whether this proves to be a trend rather than a blip, and whether the party can muster the sort of activity to maximise this (recruitment, developing our supporter networks) both remain to be seen. And as the bulk of this polling was conducted before the poor headlines we have suffered over the past few days, no-one should be holding their breath, at least not yet.