Following on from my post yesterday, I should mention that the Tories’ Scottish Leader Annabel Goldie (who, contrary to popular believe is neither a mid-90s trip hop recording artist or the Blue Peter dog), has announced the goal of forming the main opposition in 2007 and has ruled out the Tories forming a coalition with anyone.
Ironically, the number two spot is likely to be the most hotly contested. The SNP will want to hold onto it, while the Lib Dems are in a good position to take it after their excellent performance last year where they became the main opposition in terms of both MPs and popular vote. It is hard to see how the Tories will be able to do well enough to gain this prize, but they may well go forward. All three parties have a real chance of getting MSPs in the 20s, which means that they could form a coalition together, unlikely as it may be.
For what it’s worth, I think Goldie is right about the problems with coalition government. There has been a strong case for having one in the early years of the Scottish Parliament in the interests of stability, and there may be a case for one in the future, but a minority administration is possible and has genuine advantages, not least of all openness. If Labour managed to hold onto 50 MSPs in 2007, it could probably get a lot done simply by negotiating deals at different stages with the SNP, Lib Dems and Tories depending on the issue – with the opposition split in three ways, they would actually be quite strong. More likely though, they will go down to 40-something seats, in which case they will be dependent on two (or more, not forgetting the Greens and SSP), opposition parties.