Quaequam Blog!

What’s a mo?

Momentum – it’s a term borrowed from US politics where the candidate who’s moving rapidly up through the pack is said to have ‘the Big Mo’

I think there’ll be a surge in Hughes’ stock towards the end of this week / beginning of next. If what I hear (and it’s 3rd hand rumour) is correct, Ming Campbell may not be the only one who’s going to get away with two campaign launches.

And don’t forget that as yet, Simon hasn’t even begun to emphasise things like the fact that he has both the leader of the LGA Lib Dem group and Chair of ALDC as supporters, as well as a nice long list of councillors. It seems to me that Simon is the only candidate to have significant declared backing in the Westminster Parliament, Scottish Parliament, Town Halls across the country and Focus deliverers…

Don’t write Simon off yet… he’s been quiet for a week or so, I’m sure he’ll pipe up soon enough

Nick – who cares? We’re not in the US, and we don’t (quite) have their politics, thank goodness.

Looks like my £20 punt on Chris has increased in value.

“Slide to nowhere” is a bit strong. Last time I looked he was level-pegging on the exchanges and fractionally behind at the bookies. But I agree that he needs to tell us “how” as well as “why”.

Simon’s main problem as I see it – just as it was in the Mayoral – is that he knows he wants to win but he doesn’t seem to now why or what he will do if he does.

His failure to do anything to actually achieve his Presidential election pledge to double the party’s memebership is just typical of him.

The people who decide leadership elections are the rank-and-file members, who get their information from the media, not inside sources.

That’s why Kennedy won in 1999 – he was better known and had a higher media profile than any of the other candidates. And it’s why Malcolm Bruce, with few notable endorsements, did better than Jackie Ballard, who had many.

Ming is likely to win, because he is well-known and has a high media profile, and nearly all of his public exposure has been favourable to date. Simon has always been seen as a kind of Robin Hood figure, like Tony Benn in the Labour Party, popoular, but with just that slight sense of danger and controversy.

Chris Huhne will get a respectable poll, but he is very unlikely to win, simply because he is a blank sheet of paper to most members.

I see politicalbetting were saying that Simon was back in second place this morning. But markets are very thin. anyone who wan’t to influence the odds would not have to spend a great deal of money.

PS: I thought the piece on Simon in the Guardian this morning showed him in a better light than previous articles.

James – of course momentum is vital. I was making a semantic/linguistic point.

It seems Chris Huhne has it at present.