The Times, rightly, point out that the latest Populus poll makes grim reading for the Lib Dems. The results are Labour 39% (+1), Conservative 36% (+1), Lib Dem 16% (-3). But hang on a second… it is also saying that a month into Cameron’s leadership he has entirely failed to narrow the gap between the Tories and Labour.
The Lib Dems have had their worst month in recent memory. The Tories have had their best month in recent memory. Is it really the Lib Dems who should be crestfallen by these figures? Cameron is going to have to do more than ape Labour’s agenda if he is to start looking dangerous, and over the next couple of months the Lib Dems can expect a good media spotlight followed by a new leader. If this is the best you can do, Dave, you’re screwed.
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I can remember when 16% was a good poll rating for the party – and I’m not that old!
The gap between Tories and LD in the poll is also interesting – it’s at the same level as it was for most of the last year running up to the 2001 general election, which wasn’t exactly a bad result for the party vs the Tories, holding on to our 97 gains and making some further progress..
PS The Tory score in the poll is 36, not 26 (whoops! a typo though, not a misunderstanding. now corrected – JG).
I remember that time too, which was the norm until around the end of 2002. Not sure we made 97 gains in 1997 though!